Archive for January, 2008

More on CES

Friday, January 18th, 2008

It was like being reborn to see CES from an attendee’s view. And from that view I was determined to enjoy the experience without the concerns of maintaining a booth. In the VoIP realm overall it was clear that things have changed from the last couple of years. First Pulver’s VoIP section was missing, but that was just one indicator. In the recent past there have been legions bringing new low VoIP rates and that was not widely evident. The innocence of VoIP is maybe behind us– a good thing.

I have to give credit to Vonage. They may be through the hardest of times which speaks well for having raised a large war chest. Unfortunately that is not so good for those who funded that war chest. This was the first time I have seen an approach to truly deliver house-wide, plug-in-the-wall kind of service. (I don’t see this on website yet?) Vonage, et. al., are great alternative providers, but this approach is a more direct assault on the legacy system. Packet8 and Fonica were the only other classic players of significance to be pitching at the show. Logically, Skype phones should be a category killer but that message is not being delivered. The upstart MagicJack was there and even wrangled space under the USB banner. This is a useful concept but the numbers don’t seem to add up. Certainly they are betting that most will not use the service very much. If you want to make a lot of calls at their expense, go for it while you can.

The traditional telephone handset market is obviously taking a beating along with landline service offers. The one new trend is to include a cell phone docking station (Bluetooth or plug-in) so that mobile and landline can be delivered on a single handset (essentially making the mobile line a second line). Phone Labs showed business versions so your desktop phone can merge mobile and business lines transparently. All that is needed is Skype/VoIP options and everything is integrated.

Probably the most visible technology at CES was Bluetooth. It is very clear it is here—and everywhere. I have generally not been excited about the size of the latest LCD/plasma, but this year I admit to being wowed by the Panasonic 150 inch plasma. The pictures are better than reality. How can that be?

Digitized pen input has seen many variations over the years. I was impressed by a new pen that detects the printed pattern on special paper. The basic idea is not new but this resolution seemed very fine and you could print your own paper—certainly not at the finest resolution but it gives more freedom to the concept. This is from Korea so who knows if you will reach the market.

Starting the day at the “tents” in the parking lot worked well for me. Picking up a hot chocolate or coffee from Yahoo or Target is not a bad start. This is where I discovered the hottest give-away, a Jawbone Bluetooth headset. You had to trade your old headset but getting a really great new one for free was a great surprise. In the same tent was the John Lennon Tour Bus, also with a great gift bag. The bus is a magnificent rolling recording studio. Actually used for professional recordings, the mission is to take the bus to students across the US and make on-the-spot music videos. It is a very impressive non-profit venture.

No question the most impressive presentation at CES was by Intel bringing a BMW Sauber Team Formula 1 to the parking as part of a touring exhibit called Pit Lane Park. I confess to being totally sucked in, stopping by three times. The motorcycle demo by Chris Pfeiffer was amazing. I cover this more on my personal blog.

Posted in Product, Skype, Tech Life, Telephony, VoIP | 18 Comments »

Bush League Logic

Monday, January 14th, 2008

This entry follows from my wondering about Skype’s invisibility at CES. According to this article on Dow Jones Wire, “Skype Internet telephony division sees an end to a four-year-long run of record-setting numbers of personal computers downloading the software for making free phone calls over the Internet.” That is a supportable statement, but then from the bunker we get this, “As it nears a quarter-billion users Skype is close to exhausting the potential customer base among PC users.” I can suspend belief, but not all rationality. We learned to be sure to check what the meaning of “is” is. I guess we need to define what a user is. I don’t believe anyone who downloads a program, can’t recall their user name, password or when they last logged on as a user, qualifies as a user– Certainly not a user of any value.

I think that is the point. We all “know” these kinds of numbers get distorted in some way. Skype has an incredible value proposition and appears content to deliver it to the cognoscenti. I find great value in the benefits of Skype, but as long as it is considered as an alternative phone system it is stuck. There is a limited appeal to a “telephone” alternative in the US. Even users who enjoy Skype for business conferencing, or connecting internationally do not often look beyond to consider what else may be of value.

Also in this referenced article is the statement that “Skype is now pushing to get its Internet telephony software on Internet-enabled devices other than personal computers.” Certainly that is a major activity. I think I have previously referred to it as a distraction, which does not mean that Skype should not be doing this, but why abandon what is already at hand? Take the platform—as it is, and drive it into a much wider audience that can bring greater value to Skype without the significant effort to move beyond the personal computer. It seems to me that cost effective programs would be a priority for EBay to extract value from their investment. I think we could use a “surge.”I’m ready. Another view here.

Posted in Skype | 11 Comments »

Skype in Stealth Mode at CES

Monday, January 14th, 2008

You can read on Skype Journal about what you might see from Skype and partners at CES. Here’s what real visitors to CES see—not much. For the first time in a few years I attended CES as an attendee. I saw it much as anyone looking for new technology and business deals. You had to be looking hard to find Skype and think that they are a relevant player.

Of course CES is a gadget show, but it is the place for consumer-facing technology companies to show their stuff. Of course, I have special interest in Skype and watching the VoIP marketplace in general. There were precious few places you could find Skype and nowhere that I saw did anything look exciting or claim a place that was exciting. From my perspective I would certainly liked any hint at excitement.

What could Skype be thinking? It would be hard to imagine that they think they have such a dominant position that there is little need to be seen. Are they dazed and confused? Are they waiting for new leadership to set a course? Are they victims of some great compromise? Unsure of what to do at CES, they stake out a suite and talk to brand partners, looking for the next big deal. In the meantime the public (and channel) gets little attention. In the US this seems doomed. Past performance may not indicate future results—but it is a pretty good indicator and not a pretty picture.

Posted in Product, Skype | 8,777 Comments »

Skype Bashing – but not here

Sunday, January 6th, 2008

It has not been a great year for Skype. EBay was not looking when someone stuck the “Hit me” sign on Skype. A pundit’s holiday for sure, but I think some perspective is in order. It is the time for end of year comments and it seems easy to abuse Skype. One of the problems with comments is the confusion with legacy telephony, sometimes amplified with confusing VoIP references. Those who like to harp about various shortcomings of Skype compared to a 100+ year legacy network need to buy a clue– or rent one. Users have every right to be confused given much of press coverage and some of Skype’s own claims. Making comparisons to the legacy phone system is fine, after all when two people are engaged in a distant conversation that is the reference point. Beyond that Skype is something quite different.

Skype was exposed this year in ways that could easily be expected. Comparing performance to the legacy phone network is ludicrous. Every failing of Skype can be attributed to the fundamental network issues of the Internet and growing pains of what is still a very early stage company. The fact that a high value (considered extreme by many observers) was placed on the acquisition may have distorted the way some thought of Skype. This value was not based on a past or current state (I hope not), but represents the value of the Skype trajectory.

Criticism can certainly be voiced with eBay’s caretaking in helping Skype maintain the expected trajectory. EBay does have to answer to that, but that should not be cause for heaping complaints that might be leveled against a traditional phone operator. To the extent that Skype has crossed into telephone operator services these issues may be raised, but judging to the same expectation is simply not appropriate.

Skype is at a very market development early stage. I don’t think users and observers of Skype see this perspective. In the age of the blogosphere we believe that what is blogged must be real. I blog, you blog, we all blog… not! For all its success Skype has not “crossed the chasm.” Skype seems to imagine growth as a simple ongoing organic process. Distracted or deluded by partner deals with companies that area well across the chasm does not change the picture.

If critical observers would first try to understand what Skype is, and, moreover, what Skype can be, commentary would better serve us all. The overall complexity of new telephony options can be confusing. Entrants do not help when making distorted claims or presenting incomplete pictures of what product is offered. That may make it somewhat understandable why many comments about new products or services fail to grasp the essence of the offer. The wisdom of crowds is supposed to help, but if we have a crowd of parrots we cannot cut through to the facts.

Posted in NextGen Telephony, Skype, Telephony, VoIP | 8,202 Comments »